The likely candidates in this year’s presidential election are touting different versions of the economy and voters, say political analysts, are not sure who to believe or what to think.
Strong Economy and a Desired Crash
Democratic President Joe Biden says his administration has managed to turn the economy around and avoid a forecasted recession, after years of the covid-pandemic that forced many businesses to close and left the economy in tatters. Donald Trump, for the Republicans, is hoping that an economic crash happens before he gets back into the White House.
Trump’s Crash Hope
Trump said earlier in January, referencing the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and subsequent Great Depression under president Herbert Hoover: “When there’s a crash – I hope it’s gonna be during this next 12 months, because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover.”
Economic Growth, Jobs
In an update on the state of the economy, President Biden said in a statement last Thursday that it grew 3.1 percent in the last year and an additional 2.7 million jobs were added.
‘Three Years’ Growth’
Biden said that “[a]s a result, wages, wealth and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic. That’s good news for American families and American workers. That is three years in a row of growing the economy from the middle out and the bottom up on my watch.”
‘Fighting On’
The President added: “I will continue to fight to lower costs — from implementing historic legislation to lower prescription drugs costs, health insurance premiums, and clean energy costs, to taking on hidden junk fees that companies use to rip off consumers, to calling on large corporations to pass on to consumers the savings they have been seeing for months now.”
Trump on the Economy
Trump implemented historic tax cuts designed to invigorate the economy while president. He says if he becomes president again, he will slash high levels of inflation and also impose new tariffs on imports to generate more revenues and boost domestic production.
Inflation Worries
The majority of Americans are not so concerned about the general economy but continuing high prices that are eating into their salaries and savings, polls suggest. And they say they want their leaders to do something about bringing inflation down so they don’t have to struggle.
‘Takes a While’
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says subjects like Biden’s good economic message take time to sink into voters’ minds.
‘At the Right Time’
He told USA Today: “It takes people a while to believe good news in particular. Fortunately for President Biden, the economy is clearly turning around at the right time for November.”
‘Breathing Room’ for Americans
President Biden also said in his statement on the economy last week that he “won’t allow extreme Republicans to hand out massive giveaways to the wealthy and large corporations, while raising your costs and cutting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. That’s not how we give American families more breathing room.”
Improving View of US Economy
In an indication of possible good news for Biden and his reelection chances, more voters now believe the economy is doing better than it was, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll. It found that 21 percent of registered voters had this view in October last year but by January the figure had risen to 29 percent. Democrats were more likely to believe the economy is performing stronger than Republicans, at 44 percent compared to just 5 percent. And Independent voters’ increase was 15 percent in October to 22 percent now.
‘Go Stronger on Economy’
David Paleologos of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center said Biden needed to hit his economic message harder with voters.
‘Stick with Us’
He said, of what Biden’s thinking might be: “A lot of people have suffered, but we think if you stick with us, if you can endure the next few months, we think your lives are going to be better in the future.”
Economic Vision
He added: “It inspires people to understand that the President understands the plight of the consumer right now. And it also shows vision for what they’re going to do in the next four years.”
Biden and Trump in 2024?
Trump’s chances of becoming the GOP nominee have been boosted after winning the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses, and he only has one opponent left in the race, Nikki Haley, his former UN Ambassador, who is trailing him far behind in national polling. Biden is over 60 points ahead of rivals for the Democratic Party nomination, making him also the likely candidate.
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